Could ongoing Government Shutdown impact the 2026 Federal Employee Pay Raise? Looking at 2019 shutdown as precedent, will the proposed 1.0% 2026 annual pay raise be lower or higher next year? It might be up to President Trump
As the 2025 government shutdown continues, concerns are rising about its potential impact on the federal workforce, US citizens, and government services. If there is any silver lining at the moment, it could be that a higher annual pay raise for the federal workforce might result from an elongated closure of federal agencies, as it did in 2019 after the public sympathized with furloughed feds enduring an extended period without income. Right now there are three likely outcomes regarding the annual federal salary increase next year:
This article will explore all of these possibilities and their likelihood, compare the October 2025 shutdown with other government closure events that lasted even longer, and provide resources and guidance for feds that are experiencing furloughs.
Click Here for the 2026 General Schedule (GS) Pay Table with 1.0 Percent Raise
The 2025 government shutdown began on October 1st, marking the fourth longest in US history and the longest since the 2018-2019 shutdown. The current shutdown raises questions about how Congress will ultimately legislate funding for the federal government and what the ultimate impact on agency personnel will be. This government shutdown brings uncertainty to the federal government’s dedicated HR agency, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), and the services it provides.
Here is a chart showing the three longest such closure events that have lasted long than the current shutdown in 2025. Looking at the longest previous shutdowns helps us understand the possible impacts on federal employees’ pay and the factors that could influence the outcome.
| President | Shutdown Length |
Annual Pay Raise After Shutdown |
|---|---|---|
| Trump | 35 days (2018-2019) | 1.9% (2019) |
| Obama | 16 days (2013) | 1.0% (2014) |
| Clinton | 21 days (1995-1996) | 2.4% (1996) |
Following the record-breaking 35-day shutdown in February 2019, The Senate and House retroactively approved a 1.9% federal pay raise, which was signed by President Trump, despite the White House initially proposing a pay freeze in December 2018 at the onset. While the 2026 federal pay raise might end up more than 1 percent, it likely wouldn’t be much higher.
Click here for a Historical Chart for Federal Pay Raises (1970 to 2025)
The immediate impact of a government shutdown falls heavily on federal employees. Many face furloughs, leading to financial strain and job insecurity. While some essential personnel like law enforcement officers (LEO) continue to work, often without pay, the disruption affects morale and productivity across various agencies. Air-Traffic Controllers (ATC) and TSA agents using sick leave and not working has caused delays in airports around the country. These disruptions and several more like it put many feds and citizens alike into a difficult situation. October 10’s payday marked the first paycheck that employees felt the financial effects as the covered pay period included October 1 – 3, for which they did not receive their pay. And on top of all that, recruitment and retention rates were already dipping this year because of large-scale reductions in force (RIFs), and the shutdown certainly won’t help.
Schedule a free consultation with a Federal Financial Advisor – we are here to help Military Personnel and Civilian Employees impacted by the shutdown.
As of August 31, 2025, the White House submitted an alternative pay plan that included a 1.0% across-the-board raise for next year. This proposal arrived after speculation of a potential pay freeze as indicated by the president’s suggested budget published earlier in the year. Still needing an executive order or act of Congress to be come official, the proposed plan did not include any locality pay adjustments.
If the 2019 legislation to end the previous government closure is any historical precedent, it demonstrates that the final federal employee pay adjustment can be influenced by events such as a shutdown. This raise was for all federal employees, including those in certain federal law enforcement personnel positions, and high earners like those in GS-15 roles. With inflation still going up, a bigger 2026 federal pay raise could help replenish savings that civilian federal workers might have to tap into due to a furlough.
If you haven’t checked them out already here is our Guide for Federal Employees During a Shutdown and the Toolkit for Federal Retirement when Leaving Earlier than Expected.
If you need to start planning your FERS retirement, or need a better grasp of your benefits, consider attending a free federal retirement seminar online.
Need help sooner than the next FERS webinar? Learn how to get a 20+ Page Comprehensive Federal Retirement Benefits Report.
FEEA (Federal Employee Education & Assistance Fund)
Offers Shutdown Assistance Grants and Emergency Hardship Loans for qualifying employees.
Explore FEEA’s programs
Military Relief Societies (for military-affiliated federal employees)
U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)
Offers detailed guidance for agencies and employees on shutdown furloughs, including pay, leave, and benefits. Read OPM’s guidance
USSOCOM Furlough Resource Guide
A comprehensive PDF guide with financial resources, support services, and contact info for eligible employees.
Download the guide
Federal employee groups decried both President Trump’s proposed raise, saying it was not enough compensation to match the rising cost of living, and the October 2025 shutdown. NARFE, NTEU, and AFGE all offer support and advocacy for those facing furloughs or involuntary separation. Here’s a breakdown:
Explore NARFE’s Shutdown Resources
Visit NTEU.org for current updates and support.
Check AFGE.org for resources and action alerts.
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